As we headed into the 2023 NFL season, Taylor dominated the headlines. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was holding out for a contract extension, to build his own generational wealth and alter the running back market as we know it. By season’s end, the most notable Taylor in the NFL was a global icon showcasing her gaga phase with Travis Kelce during Chiefs games. You never know which road the NFL will take from year-to-year but it’s never boring.
On-field outcomes have become a little easier to predict in the era of Patrick Mahomes. After three Super Bowls wins in five years, it’s now safe to say that anyone betting against Mahomes is a fool. Yet when we glance at our Guardian NFL picks from last September, it turns out some of us writers were a little off, not only in doubting Mahomes’s ability to overcome his lack of a supporting cast but on many of our predictions across the board. Then again, one of us got the lineup for the Super Bowl spot on. Let’s, squeamishly, take a look (you can read the full predictions here) at how we saw the season playing out.
Best team that won’t make the playoffs
What we said before the season: We liked the New York Jets’ new look offense but concerns about Aaron Rodgers’ “decreased mobility” and whether “he’ll have a positive impact on team culture” correctly kept us from stamping their ticket to the postseason. Let’s not talk about our prediction that “Todd Monken’s offensive overhaul is possibly too big” at the Baltimore Ravens.
What actually happened: Rodgers’s mobility definitely decreased: he played exactly 94 seconds as a Jet before tearing his achilles, and the team proceeded to record their eighth-straight losing season. The Ravens reigned supreme, at least in the regular season, and reached the AFC Championship Game.
MVP
What we said before the season: Among our contenders was Justin Herbert who we said “will explode with Kellen Moore at the controls.” One of us picked Joe Burrow, touting what we considered his spectacular relationship with a certain receiver (“there are many talented wideout-quarterback duos out there but none with the connection of Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.”) Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence were our other picks. Crickets from us on Lamar Jackson, the actual MVP, along with Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy who were also contenders.
What actually happened: Per usual, the MVP frontrunner tag bounced around. Tua Tagovailoa and Prescott were contenders for a bit. So were Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy. None of the names we mentioned were truly in the conversation as the season evolved although, in mitigation, Burrow’s campaign was ruined by injury. Eventually the competition fizzled and Jackson, who played the best season of his career, ran away with the award.
Rookie to watch
What we said before the season: Oh, were we high on Bryce Young. “If Young is as NFL ready as he appears, he could do some real damage.” Same for Bijan Robinson, who we called a once-in-a-lifetime prospect. But we were particularly high on Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter: “Take note of the ‘baby rhino’ as he destroys offensive lines.”
What actually happened: As we predicted, Carter was a beast, constantly in the face of opposing quarterbacks. He finished behind only the Houston Texans’ Will Anderson Jr for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Robinson was grossly underutilized by the Falcons, while Young made zero impact. Meanwhile, Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud with his endless bag of tricks is already a star – we just didn’t pick him out as one.
AFC East champion
What we said before the season: Half of our votes went to the Buffalo Bills who we considered “one of the most complete teams in football”, even if we had “question marks when it comes to their lack of depth at pass rush and receiver.” The other two votes were split between the Miami Dolphins, thanks to their lethal McDaniel-Tagovailoa combo, and the Jets (“Player for player, they have as much talent as anyone in the league.”)
What actually happened: No, the Patriots didn’t shock the world. The division was Miami’s to lose thanks to their early offensive explosion. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s season was mired in tumult thanks to a wildly inconsistent quarterback and a head coach under fire for upsetting comments about the 9-11 hijackers. Just when it looked like a lost season, the Bills closed out the regular season with a five-game win streak, including a Week 18 win over Miami, to secure the No 2 seed. As for the Jets, well, maybe some day.
AFC North champion
What we said before the season: Welp. We all picked the Cincinnati Bengals, believing they were stacked on both sides of the ball: “…when you’re down to worrying about the starting safeties, you know you’re in a good spot.” We also hedged our bets, noting the Bengals would “narrowly win” the division. We were most skeptical about the Cleveland Browns, especially under center: “if last season’s Watson shows up the Browns will be cooked…”
What actually happened: The Bengals (9-8) were the only AFC North team not to make the playoffs. Cincinnati’s secondary did prove to be a detriment as was an inability to win most close games and Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury. A devastating pass rush, plus the unlikely rebirth of Joe Flacco kept the Browns contending despite (or maybe because of) losing Watson in Week 10. Baltimore took the division crown with a relentless defense of their own and a mesmerizing season from Jackson.
AFC South champion
What we said before the season: Another consensus as we all picked the Jacksonville Jaguars. Some of us thought “Mike Vrabel would keep the Titans competitive” and that “the Texans would be much better than in years past” but ultimately concluded that Jacksonville had the talent on offense to “easily win the division.”
What actually happened: The Titans underperformed across the board and fired Vrabel at season’s end. Jacksonville sat in the driver’s seat until they crashed and burned by losing six straight to close out the season. Meanwhile, the Texans went from worst to first. Stroud was not only electric but largely mistake free, and the team also hit on a bruising pass rusher in Anderson.
AFC West champion
What we said before the season: Four writers. Four votes for the Chiefs. We laid out the facts: “Patrick Mahomes is the Chiefs’ quarterback; Andy Reid is the Chiefs’ head coach; Steve Spagnuolo is the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator.” Enough said. We were split on the Chargers, one of us thinking they would “lock down a wildcard spot.” The other predicting “the Chargers will probably break a lot of hearts per usual.””
What actually happened: At 11-6, the Chiefs easily took the division as all the other teams finished below .500.
NFC East champion
What we said before the season: We all said the Philadelphia Eagles with “the most complete roster in the league” would take the crown but not without a fight from the Dallas Cowboys. We said “the battle for supremacy could be spectacular,” calling Dallas “not just the second-best team in the NFC East; they may be the second best in the conference”.
What actually happened: Philly started 10-1 before imploding spectacularly. The Eagles’ freefall was punctuated by an embarrassing Week 17 loss to the three-win Arizona Cardinals. The offense was bad, particularly the play-calling, but the defense was much much worse and shifting duties to Matt Patricia made it even more dire. Dallas showed promise throughout, especially at home where they were undefeated, and were able to steal the division thanks to the Eagles’ nosedive.
NFC North champion
What we said before the season: Two of us picked the Detroit Lions, believing they had “the division’s best roster” and liking how “they spent the offseason turning the team’s glaring weakness, the secondary, into a strength.” One of us picked the Minnesota Vikings thinking they “would win a bunch of one-score games.” The final vote went to the Green Bay Packers, suggesting Jordan Love would “benefit from Matt Lafleur’s offensive mind.”
What actually happened: The secondary was one of the few weaknesses for NFC North champion Detroit, particularly toward the end of the season. It was Jared Goff taking another step forward, the emergence of playmakers like Sam LaPorta, and the gutsy playcalling by Dan Campbell that kept the Lions dominant. Love went from a major question mark to a star down the stretch. Minnesota won several one-score games but also lost several so will get back to the drawing board. Matt Eberflus seemed unprepared to lead the Bears, his game management was particularly putrid, yet he remains at the helm. Good luck, Chicago – at least you have the No 1 pick in a few months.
NFC South champion
What we said before the season: Three of us picked the New Orleans Saints thinking that “Derek Carr’s change in scenery – and supporting cast – could be enough to spark a late-career resurgence.” Atlanta’s “resolution to run the ball with Robinson” was too tempting for our sole writer who picked the Falcons. This was a process of elimination pick for all of us. Included in the rationale: “Tampa Bay appear rudderless without Tom Brady.”
What actually happened: Why hello, Baker Mayfield. After standing at 4-7 at the end of November, the Bucs won their third-straight division title. The defense was inconsistent but could be counted on for crucial stops. Mayfield was supposed to fill the gap between Brady and the future. Instead, he proved more than competent, passing for more than 4,000 yards and had a penchant for big plays. The Saints made a valiant charge to close out the season, but it was too little too late.
NFC West champion
What we said before the season: We all picked the San Francisco 49ers due to the team’s “gamechanging talent.” But we were a bit skeptical about Purdy holding down the fort. We assumed he would “come back down to Earth.” One of our writers, which was definitely not me, was “not convinced that Purdy is the best quarterback on his own team.” We considered Seattle the 49ers’ biggest challenge, drinking the Kool-Aid from Geno Smith’s remarkable 2022 campaign. We also called the Los Angeles Rams a “dumpster fire.”
What actually happened: Aside from a three-game losing streak in October, in which we questioned Purdy and a loss to the Ravens on Christmas where we questioned Purdy again, it was smooth sailing for the 49ers and their cast of stars. Purdy and Christian McCaffrey were both in the MVP conversation. The defense, while bruising at times, was not as consistent as in years past. The Rams were among the league’s biggest surprises, with their cast of emerging rookies and journeyman surrounding a tough-as-nails Matt Stafford, who proved he’s not quite finished yet.
AFC Championship
What we said before the season: Three of believed the Chiefs would be on the losing end, two picking Buffalo and one picking the Bengals to oust last season’s champion. One of us picked the Chiefs over the Chargers.
What actually happened: Where was our respect for Baltimore? None of us had them going this far. The Ravens were favorites, but the Chiefs defense put on a masterpiece on the road. It was one of Kelce’s best games of the season, and Mahomes was able to slice and dice the Ravens early.
NFC Championship
What we said before the season: Four writers, just three teams in the conversation. We had the 49ers over the Eagles, the Eagles over the Cowboys, the 49ers over the Cowboys, and the Eagles over the 49ers.
What actually happened: The Lions buried their playoff drought and, for one half of the NFC Championship, looked to be headed to the Super Bowl. Down 17 at the half, linebacker Fred Warner gave a fiery locker room talk and the 49ers defense proceeded to dominate the second. McCaffrey scored twice and Purdy used his legs to secure the 34-31 comeback win.
Super Bowl
Who we picked before the season: Look away, Buffalo. Two of us thought Buffalo would hoist the Lombardi Trophy thinking this iteration was “scientifically engineered to finally end Buffalo’s franchise-long Super Bowl drought.” We also picked the 49ers and (yikes!) the Bengals.
What actually happened: One of us, Graham Searles, picked a 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl. But he narrowly missed on the winner as Mahomes willed the Chiefs to victory in dramatic fashion in overtime.
As for Buffalo, another year, another heartbreaking playoff loss to the Chiefs. Unless there is some seismic shift, it’s hard to envision Buffalo getting over the hump soon.
None of us picked the Chiefs as the winner. I’d like to unequivocally state that we won’t make the same mistake heading into next season. But we have a whole NFL draft and summer to delude ourselves otherwise.
