A little perspective is always useful at times like this. How many people, for example, genuinely expected England to beat the world champions, South Africa, on Saturday? A good side winning an absorbing game of rugby does not necessarily mean the gallant losers are totally hopeless. England’s autumn has certainly been full of drama but is it really a full-blown crisis?
A ‘crisis’, in sporting terms, refers to the indisputable point at which a team start to perform so far below expectations that there is no discernible hope. Yes, a fifth defeat on the trot is uncomfortable for a supposed top-tier nation. Yes, they continue to tail off in the final half-hours of too many big games. A limp finish is increasingly what springs to mind when analysts lie back and think of England.
History, at this juncture, is also worth consulting. England have statistically endured far worse autumns; in 2008, the last time they lost at home to the southern hemisphere big three on consecutive weekends, the aggregate losing margin was a grim -76. Compare and contrast that with this month’s equivalent figure of -16 and three cracking contests which, even given today’s inflated ticket prices, gave spectators full value.
So let’s sit back and ponder the slightly bigger picture. Has anyone been watching Marcus Smith and concluded England’s future is bereft of possibility?
Do they look at Sam Underhill and Freddie Steward and think England are seriously lacking in terms of squad depth? Do they assume that Alex Mitchell, Ollie Chessum, Manny Feyi-Waboso and Tom Curry will not make England any more competitive in next year’s Six Nations.
Nor do they have to face teams as strong as South Africa every week. The Springboks were unable to unleash their full “Bomb Squad” because of Ox Nché’s gashed knee in the first half, but the reason they are the world’s top ranked team is because of their mental and physical resilience in the latter stages of big games. To airbrush away the brilliant footwork of Cheslin Kolbe would also be unfair. Ditto the pace and spatial awareness of Grant Williams, whose opening try was an individual gem of which even the great Antoine Dupont would have been proud.
Viewed in isolation, then, England have had worse days. The problem is the cumulative drag of seven defeats in 11 games this year, their four wins coming against Italy, Wales, Ireland (by a point at home) and Japan. Even if they finally banish “the curse of Allianz Stadium” and brush aside the Brave Blossoms again this Sunday, their 2024 stats will look pretty ugly.
Perhaps of more significance, though, is England’s record against the top four teams over the past 20 years, as highlighted by the sharp-eyed rugby statistician Russ Petty. Since being crowned world champions in 2003, they have played 84 Tests against sides ranked in the top four and have won 23 of them, with two draws. Between late 2006 and mid-2010, when their post-2003 slump was at its steepest, they lost 14 on the trot.
Interestingly Andy Robinson and Eddie Jones also lost their jobs as England head coaches after home defeats – by 11 and 14 points respectively – by the Springboks. There were extenuating circumstances in both cases but the figure against the world’s top four on Steve Borthwick’s watch is P10 L9, with Ireland away and France at home kicking off their 2025 Six Nations campaign.
Add it together and the 2025 Six Nations potentially looms as kill or cure for Borthwick’s England project. Lose to Ireland and France (victorious over New Zealand on Saturday night) inside eight days, then slip up against Scotland or Italy at home or beleaguered Wales away and the political sands beneath his feet will definitely start to shift.
Because, for all Smith’s abundant promise, one player cannot transform the landscape. On Saturday they had five lineouts in the Springbok 22 in the final quarter and came away with nil points. Kolbe’s elusiveness was indeed mesmeric but some leaden-footed defending also played its part. Most glaring was the missed midfield tackle on Damian de Allende which permitted the all-important line break. Twelve opposition tries and an average of almost 32 points conceded in three games is not good enough.
It further reinforces the sense that the abrupt summer resignations of Felix Jones and Aled Walters from England’s coaching staff were every bit as disruptive as they felt at the time.
Borthwick keeps talking about consistency and continuity while, behind him, the faces and roles keep rotating. Whoever is selected against Japan – and this is surely a perfect opportunity to give some fringe squad members a run – it will also not alter the fact the spine of England’s side needs reinforcing. Borthwick is not certain of his best options at 15, 12 or 9, could do with a more powerful ball-carrying No 8 and has a 34-year-old hooker who may not make the next World Cup.
It is similarly valid to wonder whether the gameplan is making the absolute most of the talent available and whether Borthwick’s bench, as ever, needs more dynamism. A frustrated England are not yet in crisis but if they remain unable to kick their losing habit they soon will be.
