Halfway through this slate of Asian World Cup qualifiers, it is remarkable that Australia remain well placed in their efforts to punch a ticket to North America 2026. Yet as they prepare to face Bahrain, their standing is fraught and a relative position of strength can turn to one of weakness with just a single adverse result.

Last week’s 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia means the Socceroos have now played every other side in Group C, and they will take the field in Riffa during the wee hours of Wednesday morning sitting in the second of two automatic qualification slots. They do so despite winning just one of their opening five games and having lost their coach to a shock resignation following the opening window. Their six points from five games would only be enough for fifth place in Group A or fourth in Group B.

And yet heading into matchday six, the Socceroos’ destiny is in their own hands, mostly because their Group C rivals other than Japan have proved just as inconsistent. When Australia were stunned by Bahrain as part of a disastrous beginning to this phase, a result that sealed Graham Arnold’s fate, the Saudis were held to a surprise 1-1 draw with Indonesia. When Australia picked up their only win of this stage so far against China, Japan got a first away win over Saudi Arabia, while a 99th-minute equaliser ensured Bahrain and Indonesia played out a 2-2 draw. When the Socceroos snapped Japan’s perfect run by holding out for a 1-1 draw in Saitama, China downed Indonesia 2-1 and the Saudis and Bahrain played out a goalless draw.

Time and time again, Australia’s men have threatened to fall off the pace, only for results elsewhere to throw them a lifeline. Just last week, Bahrain had the opportunity to vault over Australia and Saudi Arabia into outright second place, only for a 91st-minute winner from China to consign them to defeat in Riffa. That goal saw China, who are the only side in the group to lose three games but who also sit alongside Japan as the only team to win multiple times, move onto six points.

At some point, however, the whims of the football gods can no longer be relied on. As the Socceroos head to the Gulf, their games are increasingly taking on an air of “must win”. Across their next three fixtures – against Bahrain and then at home against Indonesia and away to China in March – the Socceroos will face the three lowest-ranked sides in Group C. Win those and, while a World Cup place will not be guaranteed, they’ll take a giant step towards North America. Fail to triumph, however, and there’s every chance the unpredictable nature of Group C will see them battling to advance to another stage of qualification for the expanded, 48-team tournament.

There is plenty to do but, ultimately, it starts with putting the ball in the back of the net. Whereas the Socceroos’ three goals conceded is joint second best on the continent and there are signs of promise in Tony Popovic’s new 3-4-2-1 formation, across three of their opening five games they are the only side in Asia to have failed to score. Against the Saudis, they created four gilt-edged chances, only to come up wanting. Craig Goodwin’s return from suspension should help here but Nishan Velupillay is absent after picking up an ankle injury.

Scoring is perhaps easier said than done against Bahrain, who have made a habit of being a particularly stubborn thorn in the Socceroos’ side. Last September on the Gold Coast, Dragan Talajić’s side frustrated and confounded Australia with their low block and mastery of the dark arts as the hosts registered one of their worst performances in recent memory. Harry Souttar’s 89th-minute own goal consigned them to a rare home defeat and Mat Ryan raged about the “naivety” of his side in the aftermath while Souttar cut a bitter figure last week, insisting their opponents were “owed” a performance.

Revenge, however, is a dish best served cold. And for the Socceroos, that translates as being cool and dispassionate in the face of any skullduggery but, above all else, clinical in front of goal.